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Howard fails to gain from Labour woes.
May 4, 2004 8:54 PM
The Guardian - May 4th.
Mr Howard is widely regarded to have had a good run in his first six months as Tory leader. He has mobilised and reinvigorated his own supporters and harried and discomfited Mr Blair. But he has yet to reach out to the middle-ground voters who will decide the next election.
Of 12 opinion polls from MORI, ICM and Populus in the first three months of the year, the Conservatives were ahead in only one. Labour had a lead in eight, with the remainder showing the two parties neck-and-neck. The latest surveys show the same picture. The margins are small - with both parties stuck close to 35 per cent - but a year from a general election, that is a comfortable position for a government with a huge majority.
Only the Liberal Democrats can claim a sustained improvement in their position. The polls typically show the third party at just over 20 per cent, significantly higher than during the last parliament. For all the questions about his resilience, Charles Kennedy's opposition to the war has reaped political dividends. Much of his party's additional support has probably come from Labour. Most of its target seats in the election, though, are Tory - a headache for Mr Howard.
Mr Howard's problem is one that has dogged his party since 1997. He speaks strongly on subjects that enthuse his natural supporters - Europe, asylum and immigration - but has yet to find a distinctive voice on the issues more likely to determine the general election outcome
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